With ongoing war games on both sides, armed hostilities between the US-Israel led coalition and Iran are, according to Israeli military analysts, “dangerously close”.

There has been a massive deployment of troops which have been dispatched to the Middle East, not to mention the redeployment of US and allied troops previously stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Nine thousand US troops have been dispatched to Israel to participate in what is described by the Israeli press as the largest joint air defense war exercise in Israeli history.

The drill, called “Austere Challenge 12,” is scheduled to take place within the next few weeks. Its stated purpose “is to test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems, especially the “Arrow” system, which the country specifically developed with help from the US to intercept Iranian missiles.”

In the course of December, Iran conducted its own war games with a major ten days naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, (December 24, 2011- January 2, 2012).

Missile defense and naval war games are being conducted simultaneously.  While Israel  and the US are preparing to launch major naval exercises in the Persian Gulf, Tehran has announced that it plans to conduct major naval exercises in February.

An impressive deployment of troops and advanced military hardware is unfolding.

Meanwhile, Israel has become a de facto US military outpost. US and Israeli command structures are being integrated, with close consultations between the Pentagon and Israel’s Ministry of Defense.

A large number of US troops will be stationed in Israel once the war games are completed.

The assumption of this military deployment is the staging of a joint US-Israeli air attack on Iran. Military escalation towards a regional war is part of the military scenario.

Ultimately Israel is an American pawn.

The people of Israel are the unspoken victims of US military ambitions, which consist in the conquest and “recolonization” –under a US mandate– of the Anglo-Persian oil empire.

The History of War Planning: “Theater Iran Near Term” (TIRANNT)

A review of the history of war planning –including war games and simulations– directed against Iran is essential to an understanding of recent developments in the Persian Gulf.

Active war preparations directed against Iran (with the involvement of Israel and NATO) were initiated in May 2003, one month after the invasion and occupation of Iraq. It should be understood that from the outset of these war preparations, a World War III scenario was envisaged by US war planners.

The assumption of escalation was embedded in the simulations and the war games.

Moreover, the war on Iran was formulated as a “Global Strike” plan involving centralized military decision-making and coordination by US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM). A “Concept Plan” entitled CONPLAN 8022 was established in 2003. The operational CONCEPT PLAN (CONPLAN) 8022 is described as “an actual plan that the Navy and the Air Force translate into strike package for their submarines and bombers.”

A simulated scenario of an all out bombing campaign against Iran entitled “Theater Iran Near Term” was implemented in May 2003.  (To be noted, there have been numerous simulations and war games which have remained classified). .

Code named by US military planners as TIRANNT,  “Theater Iran Near Term” had identified several thousand targets inside Iran as part of a “Shock and Awe” Blitzkrieg. (The analysis contained in this section is based on my earlier 2007 article entitled Theater Iran Near Term, Global Research, February 21, 2007)

“In early 2003, even as U.S. forces were on the brink of war with Iraq, the Army had already begun conducting an analysis for a full-scale war with Iran. The analysis, called TIRANNT, for “theater Iran near term,” was coupled with a mock scenario for a Marine Corps invasionand a simulation of the Iranian missile force. U.S. and British planners conducted a Caspian Sea war game around the same time. And Bush directed the U.S. Strategic Command to draw up a global strike war plan for an attack against Iranian weapons of mass destruction. All of this will ultimately feed into a new war plan for ”major combat operations” against Iran that military sources confirm now exists in draft form.
… Under TIRANNT, Army and U.S. Central Command planners have been examining both near-term and out-year scenarios for war with Iran, including all aspects of a major combat operation, from mobilization and deployment of forces through postwar stability operations after regime change.” (William Arkin, The Pentagon Preps for Iran  Washington Post, 16 April 2006, emphasis added)

What distinguishes the TIRANNT simulations in relation to previous (pre-2003) war game scenarios, is that a) they were conducted in the wake of the Iraq war and b) the Blitzkrieg assumptions behind TIRANNT are similar to those used in the intense March 2003 bombing campaign directed against Iraq.

In other words, the bombing campaign scenarios under TIRANNT are not limited to surgical strikes directed against Iran’s nuclear facilities. They also involve an “invasion scenario”, the deployment of Marines Corps, as well as “the mobilization and deployment of forces through postwar stability operations after regime change.”

The assessment of these war games is crucial in evaluating recent developments in the Persian Gulf because it suggests that if an attack on Iran is implemented it will inevitably evolve towards an all out bombing campaign as well as a ground war.

Confirmed by Arkin, the active component of the Iran military agenda was launched in May 2003 “when modelers and intelligence specialists pulled together the data needed for theater-level (meaning large-scale) scenario analysis for Iran.” (Arkin, op cit). In October 2003, different theater scenarios for an Iran war were contemplated:

“The US army, navy, air force and marines have all prepared battle plans and spent four years building bases and training for “Operation Iranian Freedom”. Admiral Fallon, the new head of US Central Command, has inherited computerized plans under the name TIRANNT (Theatre Iran Near Term).” (New Statesman, 19 February 2007)

It is worth noting that following the implementation of TIRANNT, starting in 2004, there was a stepped up delivery of weapons systems to Israel.

Military Alliances. Simulating World War III

A World War III scenario has been the object of numerous simulations and war games, going back to the Cold War era.

We have no details regarding the geopolitical assumptions underlying the TIRANNT war scenarios, –i.e. regarding analysis of major military actors, alliances, etc. From the available information, the simulations pertained to an all out war (bombing campaign and ground war) directed against Iran, without taking into account possible responses by Iran’s allies, namely China and Russia.

In 2006, The Pentagon launched another set of war simulations entitled Vigilant Shield 07  (conducted from September through December 2006). These war simulations were not limited to a single Middle East war theater as in the case of TIRANNT (e.g. Iran), they also included Russia, China and North Korea.

The core assumption behind Vigilant Shield 07 is “Global Warfare”. In the light of recent war preparations directed against Iran, the Road to Conflict in the Vigilant Shield 07 war games should be examined very carefully. They anticipate the “New Cold War”. They reflect US foreign policy and military doctrine during both the Bush and Obama administrations. The declared enemies of America under Vigilant Shield are Irmingham [Iran],Nemazee [North Korea], Ruebek [Russia], Churya [China]

Vigilant Shield 07 is a World War III Scenario which also includes an active and aggressive role for North Korea.
The simulations are predicated on the assumption that Iran constitutes a nuclear threat and that Russia and North Korea –which are allies of Iran– will attack America and that America and its allies will wage a pre-emptive (defensive) war.
While China is included in the simulations as a threat as well as an enemy of America, it is not directly involved, in the simulations, in attacking America.

The war simulations commence with Iran and Russia conducting joint air defense exercises, followed by nuclear testing by North Korea.

A terrorist attack on America is also contemplated in Vigilant Shield 07 based on the assumption that the “axis of evil” “rogue states” are supporting “non-State” terrorist organizations.

The diplomatic agenda is also envisaged as well as a media campaign to discredit Russia and Iran.

It should be understood that the conduct of these war scenarios with America under attack is also intended as an instrument of internal propaganda within the upper the echelons of Military, Intelligence and participating government agencies, with a view to developing a an unbending consensus pertaining to the preemptive war doctrine, –i.e that the threat against the “American Homeland” is “real” and that a pre-emptive attack –including the use of US nuclear weapons–  against rogue enemies is justified. And that premeptive warfare is an instrument of peacemaking which contributes to global security.

Irmingham [Iran], Nemazee [North Korea], Ruebek [Russia], Churya [China]

Details and Sequencing: [emphasis added]

” Road to Conflict (RTC): 11 Sep – 15 Oct 06

Initial Irmingham Enrichment [indications and warning]
Initial Ruebeki & Irmingham Involvement
 – Ruebek I&W, PACFLT [U.S. Pacific Fleet] Sub Deployments
– Initial Nemazee ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] I&W
– Initial MHLD [homeland defense?] I&W
Strategic IO [information operations (cyber warfare)] operations (Ruebek & Churya)
Ruebek & Irmingham Conduct Joint AD [air defense] Exercise

Phase 1 / Deployment: 4 – 8 Dec 06

– Rogue LRA [Russian long-range aviation] w/CALCM [conventional air launched cruise missile] Launch
– Continue Monitoring Strategic Situation
– Continue Monitoring Nemazee Situation

 Possible Nuclear Testing
 Probable ICBM Preparation
– Continue Monitoring MHLD Situation

Five VOIs [vessels of interest]
 Churya Flagged VOI into Dutch Harbor Supports BMDS [ballistic missile defense system] Threat to Ft Greely

– Continue Monitoring IO Activities
Nemazee Conducts SLV [space launch vehicle] Launch – 8 Dec 06

Phase 2 Minus 42 Days:

Additional Nemazee ICBM Shipments to Launch Facilities
RMOB [Russian main operating bases] Acft Conduct LR Navigation Flights
AS-15 [nuclear armed cruise missile] Handling at RMOBs

– Minus 41 Days:
Additional Nemazee ICBM Preps at Launch Pad # 2
– Minus 40 Days:
 Activity at Nemazee Nuclear Test Facilities
– Minus 35 Days:
 DOS [Department of State] Travel Warning
 – Minus 30 Days:
Ruebek LRA Deploys Acft to Anadyr & Vorkuta

Phase 2 Minus 30 Days:

Growing International Condemnation of Ruebek
Ruebek Deploys Submarines

– Minus 20 Days:
 Nemazee Recalls Reservists
 – Minus 14 Days:
DOS Draw-down Sequencing
– Minus 13 Days:
 Ruebek Closes US Embassy in Washington DC
 – Minus 11 Days:
Nemazee Conducts Fueling of Additional ICBMs
 Ruebeki Presidential Statement on Possible US Attack

Phase 2 Minus 10 Days:

POTUS Addresses Congress on War Powers Act
– Minus 6 Days:
 Ruebek President Calls Situation Grave
 – Minus 5 Days:
CALCM Activity at Anadyr, Vorkuta, and Tiksi
Ruebeki SS-25 [nuclear armed mobile ICBMs] Conduct out of Garrison Deployments
Nemazee Assembling ICBM for Probable Launch
– Minus 4 Days:
 Ruebek Closes US Embassy in Washington DC
 Ruebek Acft Conduct Outer ADIZ [air defense identification zone] Pentrations
Mid-Air Collison w/NORAD Acft During ADIZ Penetration

Phase 2 Minus 4 Days:

Nemazee ICBM Launch Azimuth Threatens US

– Minus 3 Days:
NATO Diplomatic Efforts Fail to Diffuse Crisis
USAMB to Ruebek Recalled for Consultation
POTUS Addresses Nation
 – Minus 2 Days:
Nemazee Leadership Movement
 – Minus 1 Day:
Ruebek Expels US Mission

Phase 2 / Execution: 10 – 14 Dec 06

– Pre-Attack I & W
Imminent Terrorist Attack on Pentagon Suggests Pentagon COOP [continuity of operations plan]
Nemazee Conducts 2 x ICBM Combat Launches Against United States
Ruebek Conducts Limited Strategic Attack on United States
Wave 1 – 8 x Bear H Defense Suppression w/CALCM
Wave 2 – Limited ICBM & SLBM Attack
– 2 x ICBM Launched (1 impacts CMOC [Cheyenne Mountain], 1 malfunctions)
– 2 x SLBM Launched Pierside (1 impacts SITE-R ["Raven Rock" bunker on the Maryland-Pennsylvania border], 1 malfunctions)
– 3 x Bear H from Dispersal Bases w/ALCM (Eielson AFB, CANR, Cold Lake)
– US Conducts Limited Retaliatory Attack on Ruebek
1 x ICBM C2 Facility
1 x ICBM Against ICBM Launch Location
Phase 2 / Execution:
Ruebek Prepares Additional Attack on United States
Wave 3 Prepares for Additional Strategic Attacks
  – 1 x ICBM Movement, NO Launch
– 3 x SLBM PACFLT Pierside Missile Handling Activity (NO Launch)
– 6 x BEAR H (launch & RTB [return to base]) w/6 x ALCM (NO launch)”

[source Northern Command and William Arkin] emphasis added

Complacency of Western Public Opinion

The complacency of Western public opinion (including segments of the US anti-war movement) is disturbing.

No concern has been expressed at the political level as to the likely consequences of  a US-NATO-Israel attack on Iran using US and/or Israeli nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state.

Moreover, public opinion is led to believe that the war will be limited to surgical strikes directed against Iran’s nuclear facilities and that neither Russia nor China will intervene.

The war on Iran and the dangers of escalation are not considered “front page news.” The mainstream media has excluded in-depth analysis and debate on the implications of these war plans.

The absence of public awareness, the complacency of the antiwar movement as well as the weakness of organized social movements indelibly contribute to the real possibility that this war could be carried out, leading to the unthinkable: a nuclear holocaust over a large part of the Middle East and Central Asia involving millions of civilian casualties.

It should be noted that a nuclear nightmare would occur even if nuclear weapons are not used.

The bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities using conventional weapons would contribute to unleashing a Chernobyl-Fukushima type disaster with extensive radioactive fallout.

Global Research, January 8, 2012

In the wake of the announcement of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, speculation has mushroomed over the cause, mainly because of the extreme secrecy in the Stalinist state.

North Korea’s Central News Agency reported Monday that Kim died of a heart attack last Saturday on a train while heading to an unidentified destination.

Previously, the late North Korean leader had suffered two strokes; and his declining health had spurred speculation among those outside the North that his death was near.

Given this, the announcement wasn’t unexpected.

However, there are some North Korean defectors here who remain suspicious of the state-controlled media’s report on the cause of his death, raising very cautiously the possibility of Kim having been murdered.

An Chan-il, a political scientist, didn’t rule out the possibility that the North Korean leader might have been killed by those harboring discontent with the way he ruled the country.

“After his third son Jung-un was named for a dynastic leadership succession, many military officers, especially those in their 50s, were dismissed. I think these people could have held deep resentment about Kim and North Korea’s next leader,” he said.

“A rumor is circulating that earlier a high-ranking North Korean official was shot dead. This has yet to be confirmed, but such talk is evidence that discontent was brewing among some people in the North.”

An, 57, speculated the North Korean military’s dwindling power could have spurred brewing displeasure among some military officers, especially those eliminated from power.

Under the Kim Jong-il regime, the political scientist said, they had complained about their status as the military-first policy showed signs of retreating.

“As their vested interests were hurt due to Kim Jong-il, I would not rule out the possibility that some military officers, who believed their clout and influence had been damaged, could have played a role in his death,” An said.

Rep Chun Yo-ok of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) also raised the possibility that Kim might have been killed as a result of a power struggle inside the North.

Another North Korean defector, however, remained cautious about this.

Kim Seong-min, the representative of Free North Korea Radio based in Seoul, said he believed the North’s announcement on Kim’s death as there was no evidence backing foul play.

North Korea said that the cause of Kim’s death was confirmed after the authorities there carried out an autopsy Sunday, the day after he died.

Source.

“BREAKING NEWS” has headlined many of the worlds top news stations and papers, a few moments ago. The Associated Press (@AP) released a tweet stating, “BREAKING NEWS: North Korea says supreme leader Kim Jong Il has died”. Shortly after, numerous other papers such as the NY Times (@NYTIMES) also released a tweet stating that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, had passed.

CNN released a statement describing that according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency, the leader had indeed died. BBC News released a statement describing the announcement, saying, “The announcer, wearing black, said he had died on Saturday of physical and mental over-work. Kim Jong-il was 69 and believed to have suffered ill health for many years.” Yonhap News released a statement saying, “N. Korean leader died of fatigue at 8:30 a.m. Dec. 17 during train ride.”

It is believed that Kim Jong-un will be the successor, although analysts have also reported that his uncle, Chang Sung-taek will act as a “regent”, as they are speculating that the son is too inexperienced to lead the country.

South Korea’s military has reportedly declared an emergency state of alert due to this news, reported Yonhap News.

Celebrities such as @realISAK and @dumbfoundead began immediately retweeting news and commenting, saying, “What will this mean for North Korea….town?”

Although this is news not related to K-Pop, Koreaboo strongly believes it is an important piece to report on.

Source: BBC News, New York Times, Associated Press, CNN, and Yonhap News.

South Korea and the United States launched a massive joint military exercise on Tuesday, prompting the North to condemn the manoeuvres as provocative and warn that “all-out war” could erupt.

The two allies have described the 10-day Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise as defensive and routine but the North habitually terms such joint drills a rehearsal for invasion and launches its own counter-exercises.

“The exercise started this morning,” a spokesman of the US-South Korea Combined Forces Command (CFC) told AFP, referring to the annual computer-assisted simulation command-post exercise.

All of CFC’s major units are taking part, involving more than 530,000 troops, including some 3,000 military personnel from the United States and other bases around the Pacific region, CFC said.

US General James D. Thurman, Combined Forces Command Commander, said the drill was focused on “preparing, preventing and prevailing against the full range of current and future external threats” to South Korea and the region.

“We are applying lessons learned out of Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as those garnered by the Alliance’s recent experiences with North Korean provocations on the peninsula and past exercises,” he said.

Pyongyang condemned the exercise as “extremely provocative”, calling it a preparation for an “all-out war” against the North and the “largest-ever nuclear war exercise”.

“The Korean peninsula is faced with the worst crisis ever. An all-out war can be triggered by any accidents,” the North’s ruling communist party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary.

Seoul and Washington wanted to use the latest exercises to build up their capability to mount surprise attacks on the North’s nuclear and missile facilities, it said.

“The US war-mongers are planning to carry out a realistic war drill to remove our nuclear facilities with a mobile unit led by the US 20th Support Command which was sent to Iraq to find and disable weapons of mass destruction,” it said.

“Our military and the people will not sit idle as US imperialists mobilise massive military forces and threaten our sovereign rights.” It accused the United States of seeking to bring war to the Korean peninsula after Afghanistan and Iraq as a way to “extricate itself from its worsening economic crisis”.

The CFC spokesman said that during the exercise, troops would train for a “wide variety of missions including those involving the location and security of chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological threats”.

Professor Yang Moo-Jin, of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said the North was unlikely to escalate tensions despite its criticism of the exercise, one of two annual Korean peninsula-wide drills by the CFC.

“The North is unlikely to raise tension at a time when diplomatic efforts are underway to resume dialogue” even though the North’s Tuesday statement is strongly-worded, Yang told AFP.

The North’s military urged Seoul and Washington last week to show their willingness to work towards denuclearisation by scrapping the exercise.

In an open letter published by its official news media, Pyongyang also called for a peace-keeping mechanism to replace the current armistice that ended the 1950-1953 war.

A flurry of diplomatic efforts have been under way to resume stalled six-party disarmament talks involving the two Koreas, Russia, China, Japan and the United States.

Senior Pyongyang officials met their counterparts in Seoul and Washington last month, raising hopes that the talks – last held in December 2008 – could resume.

The North has repeatedly expressed a desire to return to the forum, but the United States has urged it to show more sincerity and mend ties with the South first.

Source.

Press TV – North Korea has threatened to wage a “sacred war” against the South amid new tensions between the two neighbors over “slanderous” signs posted at South Korean army units.

A North Korean government spokesman accused frontline South Korean army units of setting up “virulent” signs that “slander” North Korea, and incite “extreme hostility” toward Pyongyang, the Associated Press reported.

“This is little short of a clear declaration of war,” the unnamed spokesman said.

“We will react to the enemy’s provocation with a stern punishment and counter its war with a merciless retaliatory sacred war.”

The reaction comes following a report by South Korea’s Hankyoreh newspaper, which indicated that some South Korean army units near the border had set up anti-North Korea slogans.

The newspaper quoted some of the slogans as reading “Let’s stick swords and guns into the hearts of North Korean enemy army!” and “A club is the only medicine for a mad dog!”

South Korea’s Defense Ministry confirmed the newspaper report, saying the slogans were aimed at bolstering the soldiers’ mental toughness against North Korea.

Last November, Seoul and Pyongyang exchanged artillery fire in the Yellow Sea border island of Yeonpyeong. The two blamed each other for the launch of the border fighting.

South Korea said it returned fire after North Korean forces shelled one of its islands, but the North said the South fired first. Two South Korean troops died during the clashes.

In March 2010, Seoul accused Pyongyang of sinking a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors. The North fiercely denies any involvement in the attack.

Pyongyang, June 19 (KCNA) — One more fact was recently disclosed that the U.S. has been making preparations for an invasion of the DPRK with Japan as a base.

The Japanese Asahi Shimbun dated June 15 quoted a U.S. diplomatic document as saying that the U.S. busied itself collecting detailed information for the use of Japan’s airports and seaports for military operations in the “contingency of the Korean Peninsula” in 2008.

At that time the U.S. repeatedly asked the Japanese government to haste the field survey of civilian airports and seaports in Japan, the paper added.

AP – North Korea vowed Friday to launch “retaliatory military actions” against South Korea, a threat that came days after Seoul said its military had used photos of Pyongyang’s ruling family for target practice.

The North’s fiery statement is part of a barrage of harsh rhetoric this week aimed at the conservative government of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who took office in 2008 with a harder line than his liberal predecessors.

Pyongyang sees “no need to sit face to face with the Lee group of traitors” and believes the only way to settle differences with Seoul is “by force of arms,” the statement by an unidentified spokesman for the general staff of the North’s Korean People’s Army said.

“From now on,” the statement said, the North “will launch practical and overall retaliatory military actions to wipe out the group of traitors at a stroke.”

The North has regularly lashed out against Lee. Lee halted unconditional aid and linked South Korean assistance to progress in North Korea’s nuclear disarmament efforts. Pyongyang branded Lee “human scum” and a traitor to Korean reunification.

Friday’s statement made apparent reference to South Korean marines and some army units using pictures of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, his son and heir-apparent Kim Jong Un, and his father, the North’s revered founder Kim Il Sung, as firing targets since the North’s deadly shelling of a South Korean border island in November. The South said Tuesday it would tell units to use only standard targets.

Kim Il Sung remains North Korea’s “eternal president” 17 years after his death, his beaming face on billboards, portraits and the small pins North Koreans wear affixed to their shirts and jackets.

North Korea said in its statement that South Korea had “staged such rowdyism as setting up a target and daring fire at it, a thrice-cursed criminal act of hurting the supreme dignity of” North Korea. It also mentioned alleged anti-North Korea propaganda in the South.

South Korea’s presidential Blue House had no comment, but close ally the United States criticized the statement.

“We are looking for North Korea to put relations with South Korea on a more positive track and that is clearly not in keeping with that,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner told a news conference in Washington.

North Korea’s threats follow an attempt Wednesday to humiliate Lee.

Pyongyang claimed South Korea had begged for talks between the two countries’ leaders and offered “envelopes of cash.” The North said it rejected the proposal for talks because Seoul leaked distorted information about a secret preparatory meeting in Beijing.

South Korea expressed regret over that statement, calling it a “unilateral claim that distorted our sincerity.”

Animosity has run high between the Koreas since two deadly attacks blamed on North Korea last year. The North has denied involvement in the sinking of a warship in March that killed 46 South Korean sailors and argued that a November artillery barrage that killed four was provoked by South Korean firing drills.

KBS - The South Korean military is on high alert after North Korea threatened to launch indiscriminate fire against the sites where anti-North Korea leaflets from the South are sent.

The Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said on Friday that Pyongyang sent Seoul a notice in the morning, threatening to fire at the sites. Kim stated that the South Korean military is closely monitoring the North’s movements, fully ready to respond to any provocation.

On the North’s claim that the South fired at the North on April 15th, the spokesman said that three rounds from a K-6 machine gun were mistakenly fired during an exercise, to which the South’s military immediately notified the North via loudspeakers.

Kim added that the North did not fire back against the accidental firing.

Chosunilbo – The Korean Peninsula is experiencing its most dangerous period since the Korean War, a British think tank claims. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies made the assessment in its “The Military Balance 2011″ report published on Tuesday.

“In the context of an imminent and possibly unclear leadership succession in Pyongyang, North Korea’s apparent aggression towards the South — seen in its alleged sinking of the Cheonan in March last year and its shelling last November of the island of Yeonpyeong — mean that the Korean Peninsula is now as dangerous a place it has been at any time since the end of the Korean War in 1953,” the report says.

“These developments have reinforced South Korea’s determination to strengthen its military capacity. Seoul has focused on procuring anti-submarine warfare capabilities and has accelerated the multirole fighter aircraft programme.”

Citing the two Koreas as an example, IISS director-general John Chipman told Reuters that local skirmishes have been a trend around the world over the past decade, but that the threat of conventional warfare between states is also growing again.

The report ranks North Korea fourth after China, the U.S., and India in terms of nuclear, chemical and cyber warfare capabilities and the number of troops. The North is believed to have enough plutonium to make four to eight nuclear warheads for missiles, a 2,500 to 5,000 ton stockpile of chemical weapons, enhanced cyber warfare capabilities to paralyze the enemy command structure by destroying its computer systems, and a massive number of troops.

Global Times - [08:20 February 28 2011] - By Li Ying

North Korea Sunday threatened “unprecedented all-out counteraction” in response to today’s joint military drill between South Korean and US troops.

“The army and people of North Korea will return bolstered nuclear deterrent of our own style for the continued nuclear threat … and our own missile strike for their vicious attempt to eliminate our missiles,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

The North will turn the South’s capital, Seoul, into a “sea of flames” if South Korea holds the military exercise, KCNA said Sunday in the statement.

A two-day military talk between Pyongyang and Seoul aimed at easing months of high tensions on the Korean Peninsula collapsed earlier this month.

About 200,000 South Korean and 12,800 US troops will take part in the Key Resolve drills, which will last until March 10, according to AFP. Foal Eagle, a joint air, ground and naval training exercise, will continue through April 30.

AFP also said the US had planned to deploy its 97,000-ton USRonald Reagan aircraft carrier for the drills.

The joint military drill is aimed at the potential finding and destroying of North Korean weapons of mass destruction, according to the Seoul-based Yonhap News Agency.

Lü Chao, director of the North and South Korea Research Center at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that since the exercise doesn’t present a substantive threat to Pyongyang, the North won’t actually respond with force.

“The North is just using ruthless words as a response to the South’s hardline stance,” Lü said. “The last thing they want to see is war.”

From the South’s side, he added, they should also learn that irritating only makes the situation worse.

However, Jeung Young-tae, director of the North Korean Studies Center at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told the Global Times that Key Resolve is just a regular annual exercise that was scheduled before the latest talks between the two Koreas collapsed.

“We will definitely carry on the joint drill in order to curb a sudden attack from Pyongyang,” Jeung said.

North Korea Sunday also threatened to fire at South Korean facilities involved in “psychological warfare,” unless the South suspends its propaganda campaign.

The South Korean military has been sending propaganda leaflets containing details about recent anti-government movements in the Middle East in balloons to North Korea, mixing them with aid, Yonhap reported.