The West and Russia had a major showdown Saturday Feb. 5 over the Arab League resolution calling on Bashar Assad to step down and allow the formation of a national unity government. US President Barack Obama demanded a UN stand against the Syrian president’s “relentless brutality” and a vote before the end of the day. It was put to the vote and defeated by Russian and China vetoes.

Moscow sources charged that the motion had been intended to pave the way for war in Iran and a bid to overthrow the Tehran regime.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the Russians backed their hard line against the West by putting Rapid Reaction Force (aka Spetsnaz) units in Black Sea bases on the ready to set out for Syria and defend Damascus. A Cold War dimension has been injected into the Syrian crisis, which is fast descending into a sectarian war between Syria’s ruling Alawites (Shiites) and the majority Sunnis. The regional dimension is provided by pitting Iran and Syria against Turkey and the Gulf Arabs.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s earlier announcement that he would visit Damascus next Tuesday, Feb 7, with Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov was meant to buy Bashar Assad another three days’ grace to polish off the opposition before a possible UN-ordered ceasefire.

However, the US and Western powers refused to wait for further Syrian excesses to take place after various sources reported earlier Saturday that Syrian troops had shelled the Homs district of Khaldiyeh, killing an estimated 350 people there and injuring some 1,500, in the worst military bombardment of nearly 11-month-old uprising,.

Syrian government officials denied the charge accusing “gunmen” of killing civilians.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources note that Moscow’s gesture to send the Russian foreign intelligence chief to Damascus alongside the foreign minister is supported additionally by the presence in the Syrian port of Tartus of Russia’s only aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov with two destroyers and a marine force.

Aside from a few Turkish brigades strung out along the Syrian border, the West maintains no troops on in the vicinity of Syria since the American military withdrew from Iraq last December.

The United States presented a tough front at the UN Security Council Saturday, with President Obama insisting that the council vote on a Arab League text without further delay or changes to accommodate Moscow and that its president step down over his “unspeakable assault” on Homs.

The hard lines taken by Washington and Moscow over the Syrian crisis produced a harsh showdown over the “Arab Spring” per se, which Russian has been building up to since NATO helped Libyan rebels overthrow Muammar Qaddafi.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who runs for his third term as president in a month’s time, and President Dmitry Medvedev appear to have determined, even at the price of military intervention, not to let NATO and Arab states repeat the Libyan exercise in Damascus. The gauntlet they threw down was picked up by President Obama Saturday. If the Russians continue to obstruct the US, European and Arab role in backing the Arab revolt and the Muslim Brotherhood, The United States, the Europeans and the Gulf Arabs are likely to redouble their efforts to unseat Bashar Assad.

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Russia and China on Saturday vetoed a Western and Arab-sponsored U.N. resolution condemning Syria’s violent repression of anti-government demonstrators, throwing their prestige and power behind President Bashar al-Assad as he intensifies a military operation aimed at crushing the 10-month-old uprising.

The Russian and Chinese stance came as a blow to U.S. and European efforts to rally behind an Arab League plan that would require Assad to step down, making way for a democratically elected unity government with a leader who commanded the support of both the government and the opposition.

The Security Council vote capped weeks of tumultuous negotiations that pitted the United States, the European Union and the Arab League against Russia, Syria’s remaining protector in the 15-member council. It undercuts a diplomatic push by the Arab League to secure the council’s backing for its plan, which also included provisions requiring Syria to open itself to far greater outside scrutiny, allowing foreign journalists, Arab monitors and U.N. human rights investigators unimpeded access throughout the country.

Saturday’s vote, in which 13 of the council’s 15 members voted for the resolution, came a day after Syrian authorities moved to crush resistance in the town of Homs, killing hundreds of civilians, according to the White House, as Syrians observed the 30th anniversary of the massacre of tens of thousands of civilians in the town of Hama.

Before the vote, the United States and European countries appealed to Moscow to join the rest of the international community in condemning a government they say is responsible for killing thousands of its own citizens and jailing and torturing thousands more, including children.

President Obama issued a statement calling on Assad to step down and making a last-ditch effort to press Moscow and other fence straddlers to support the Security Council resolution, denouncing Syria’s “unspeakable assault” against the people of Homs.

“The Council now has an opportunity to stand against the Assad regime’s relentless brutality and to demonstrate that it is a credible advocate for the universal rights that are written into the UN Charter,” he said.

“Thirty years after his father massacred tens of thousands of innocent Syrian men, women, and children in Hama, Bashar al-Assad has demonstrated a similar disdain for human life and dignity,” Obama said. “The Syrian regime’s policy of maintaining power by terrorizing its people only indicates its inherent weakness and inevitable collapse. Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community.”

Before the U.N. meeting got underway, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton huddled in private with her Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in Munich, where the two were attending a European security conference. A senior State Department official said afterward that the two “had a very vigorous discussion.”

“They both agreed that the situation on the ground is urgent, given the violence,” the official told reporters, insisting on anonymity in discussing the private meeting.

Susan E. Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said after the vote that the United States was “disgusted” by the Russian and Chinese vetoes. The council has “been held hostage by a couple of members,” she said, adding that “these members stand behind empty arguments and individual interests while seeking to strip” any resolution of meaningful terms.

“A couple of members of this council remain steadfast in their willingness to sell out the Syrian people and shield a craven tyrant,” Rice said. She said Saturday’s action was even “more shameful” given Russia’s role in selling arms to Assad’s government.

“It is a sad day for the council. It is a sad day for Syria,” France’s U.N. ambassador, Gerard Araud, said. “History has now compounded our shame.”

“Those who would impede the adoption of [this resolution] would take a heavy responsibility before history,” France’s foreign minister, Alain Juppe, said shortly before the vote.

“Failure to act would be [a] scandal,” added Germany’s U.N. envoy, Peter Wittig. The “reports from Homs are shocking.”

But Lavrov, also speaking ahead of the vote, said that the resolution was impractical and unfair and voiced concern about adopting what he called “an absolutely unrealistic provision expecting that the government of Syria would withdraw from the cities and towns exactly at the time when the armed groups are taking over the quarters of those cities and towns.”

“We are not friends or allies of President Assad,” said Lavrov, who plans to visit Damascus on Tuesday. “We try to stick to our responsibilities as a permanent members of the Security Council, and the Security Council by definition does not engage in domestic affairs of member states.”

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Mikhail Fradkov on behalf of the Russian head of state to visit Syria on February 7 and will meet with President Bashar Assad.

According to RIA “Novosti” , the minister did not disclose any details about the upcoming trip. Recall in Syria protests against the authorities have been going on for about 10 months, and the UN Security Council is trying to find a way to resolve the situation. 

In October 2011 the Western countries have tried to make a resolution threatening sanctions against Syria, but Russia and China have blocked it, using the veto. previously reported that Moscow is not ready to support an updated draft UN Security Council resolution on Syria, which has been softened because of objections the Russian side. 

“It’s not enough order so that we can support him in this way,” – said Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov. He added that the Russian side is ready to take the next few days finalizing the document. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that if draft UN resolution condemning the violence in Syria will be put to the vote, it will end in scandal.

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The Russian Foreign Ministry rejected reports on Friday that it could strike a deal on Iran with the United States in exchange for non-intervention by the West in Syria.

“Nothing could be further from the truth than the assertion that our country may cut a backroom deal, giving the green light to a U.S. military operation against Iran in exchange for Western non-interference in Syria’s internal affairs,” the ministry said in a written commentary posted on its website.

“We leave that to the conscience of their authors.”

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Syria rejected Monday a new Arab League plan aiming to end the country’s 10-month crisis by calling on the government and the opposition to form a national unity government within two months.

The Syrian statement carried by the state-run news agency SANA came a day after Qatari Foreign Minister Sheik Hamad Bin Jassem Bin Jabr Al Thani told reporters in Cairo that the Arab League was launching a new initiative to solve the crisis.

The Syrian uprising began in March following popular revolts that overthrew long-serving leaders in Tunisia and Egypt. President Bashar Assad retaliated with a deadly crackdown that the U.N. says has left more than 5,400 people dead.

A statement issued by Arab foreign ministers after a Sunday Arab League meeting in Cairo called for the establishment of a national unity government within two months, in which the government and the opposition are included, and which is led by a figure of consensus.

The mandate of this government, said the statement, is to prepare for free parliamentary and presidential elections to be held under Arab and international supervision.

It also provides for Assad to give his vice president full powers to cooperate with the proposed government to enable it to carry out its duties during a transitional period.

SANA quoted an unnamed official as saying Syria considers the plan “a violation of its sovereignty and a flagrant interference in its internal affairs.” It added that the plan comes as part of the “conspiracy Syria is being subjected to.”

The Syrian government blames the violence in Syria on terrorists and armed gangs that it claims are part of a foreign conspiracy to destabilize the country.

The Local Coordination Committees opposition group also criticized the Arab League plan saying it gives the Syrian regime “a new opportunity, time and cover, in its attempt to bury the revolution.”

The LCC said the Arab League should declare that it failed to end the crisis, and ask for help from the “United Nations to force the regime to comply with the demands of the opposition.”

Arab League foreign ministers also extended the much-criticized observers mission for another month, according to a statement from the 22-member organization.

The Arab League faced three options Sunday: ending the mission and giving up its initiative, extending it, or turning the crisis over to the U.N. Security Council, as some opposition groups have urged. There, however, it would face a possible stalemate because of disagreements among permanent members over how far to go in forcing Assad’s hand.

The mission’s one-month mandate technically expired on Thursday.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal told reporters that his country will pull out its observers because “the Syrian government did not implement the Arab plan.” He urged Muslim countries, China, Russia, Europe and the U.S. to put pressure on Assad’s government to stop the violence.

Saudi Arabia has been one of the harshest Arab critics of the crackdown, It recalled its ambassador from Damascus last year in protest.

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Russia has signed a contract to sell combat jets to Syria, a newspaper reported Monday, in apparent support for President Bashar Assad and open defiance of international condemnation of his regime’s bloody crackdown.

The respected business daily Kommersant, citing an unidentified source close to Russia’s Rosoboronexport state arms trader, said the $550-million deal envisions the delivery of 36 Yak-130 aircraft. A spokesman for Rosoboronexport refused to comment on the report.

If confirmed, the deal would cement Russian opposition to international efforts to put pressure on Assad’s regime over its attempts to snuff out the country’s uprising. The U.N. says more than 5,400 people have died over 10 months. The report of the sale comes the same day that Human Rights Watch called Russia’s backing of the Syrian regime “immoral.”

The Yak-130 is a twin-engined combat trainer jet that can also be used to attack ground targets. The Russian air force has recently placed an order for 55 such jets.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last week that Moscow doesn’t consider it necessary to offer an explanation or excuses over suspicions that a Russian ship had delivered munitions to Syria despite an EU arms embargo.

Russia was acting in full respect of international law and wouldn’t be guided by unilateral sanctions imposed by other nations, he said.

Lavrov also accused the West of turning a blind eye to attacks by opposition militants and supplies of weapons to the Syrian opposition from abroad and warned that Russia will block any attempt by the West to secure United Nations support for the use of force against Syria.

Russia has been a strong ally of Syria since Soviet times when the country was led by the president’s father Hafez Assad. It has supplied Syria with aircraft, missiles, tanks and other modern weapons.

Igor Korotchenko, head of the Center of Analysis of the Global Arms trade, an independent think-tank, said the jet deal apparently reflected Moscow’s belief that Assad would stay at the helm.

“With this contract, Russia is expressing confidence that President Assad would manage to retain control of the situation, because such deals aren’t signed with a government whose hold on power raises doubts,” Korotchenko was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying. “It’s another gesture by Moscow underlining its confidence that Damascus will remain its strategic partner and ally in the Middle East.”

Another Moscow-based military analyst, Ruslan Pukhov, said, however, that Russia might be too optimistic about Assad’s prospects.

“This contract carries a very high degree of risk,” Pukhov told Kommersant. “Assad’s regime may fall and that would lead to financial losses for Russia and also hurt its image.”

Human Rights Watch warned Russia that by supporting Assad it is repeating the mistakes of some Western governments during the Arab Spring, saying they were too slow to recognize the popular desire for democratic change in places like Egypt and Bahrain.

“Armed elements shooting at government soldiers is materially different from government representatives shooting deliberately at unarmend civilians,” Carroll Bogert, the group’s deputy executive director, said at a news conference in Moscow that followed the release of HRW’s annual report.

She added that the overwhelming number of victims in Syria is on the side of the demonstrators.

“The continued support of this regime is immoral and not permissible,” Bogert said. “The West has already made serious mistakes with the support of Arab regimes. Russia’s repetition of those mistakes will lead to tragic consequences.”

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Russia dismissed denials by NATO and three alliance members about plans for military intervention in Syria, saying it has information that a no-fly zone and humanitarian corridors are under discussion.

“Our partners in the West are in fact discussing a no-fly zone,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Moscow today. “There are other ideas being realized, including humanitarian convoys, in the hope they could provoke a response from government forces, border guards.”

Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and some Persian Gulf countries are considering a repeat of the campaign in Libya, Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Russian Security Council, said Jan. 12. Turkey, a NATO member, may play a key role and is working with the U.S. on a no-fly zone to protect Syrian rebels, he said. The U.K., France and Turkey, denied the same day that military intervention in Syria was an option.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe in November suggested setting up humanitarian corridors to deliver aid in Syria protected by military forces. Qatar last week said Arab troops should be dispatched to Syria to halt violence after Arab League observers failed to deter a crackdown on protests.

Russia will use its veto-wielding power to prevent the United Nations Security Council from approving any attempted military intervention in Syria, Lavrov said.

‘Their Own Initiative’

“If somebody decides to use force at any cost, I doubt we can stop them, but it will happen at their own initiative and let it be on their conscience,” he said. “They won’t get any mandate from the UN Security Council.”

Russia, which has Soviet-era ties with Syria, argues that UN-sanctioned bombing of Libya by NATO to protect civilians was used to bring about regime change and that western governments are trying to repeat that scenario in Syria.

Lavrov today also rejected U.S. criticism over a Russian arms shipment to Syria, saying it’s not violating international law by supplying weapons to the Middle Eastern country.

…

The U.S. has “very grave concern” about arms reaching Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, said yesterday after news reports that a Russian shipment of ammunition arrived in Syria via Cyprus.

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Russia has given Iran its bear hug and warns Israel and the West that an attack on Tehran would be considered an attack on Moscow. The threat heightens the prospect of World War III in the event of a military strike on Iran.

“Iran is our neighbor,” Russia’s outgoing ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, told reporters in Brussels. “And if Iran is involved in any military action, it’s a direct threat to our security.”

Kremlin Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev accused Israel of provoking the United States towards war against Iran, the Russian Interfax news agency reported Friday. “But at the same time, we believe that any country has the right to have what it needs to feel comfortable, including Iran,” he added.

Rogozin warned on Friday that more attacks on Iran could cause “a scorching Arab Summer.”

Russia also has come to the defense of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, warning Western nations not to intervene in Syria with military forces. Russia is a major arms supplier to Syria and has a heavy investment in Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Japan also is drifting towards Iran, backtracking from its promise last week to back American sanctions aimed at persuading Iran to halt its unsupervised nuclear development.

Last week’s assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist has aroused more “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” protest rallies in Iran, where the scientist was buried on Friday.

Iranian state radio said the 32-year-old scientist was involved with enriched uranium, a key ingredient for a nuclear weapon.

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The escalating conflict around Iran should be contained by common effort, otherwise the promising Arab Spring will grow into a “scorching Arab Summer,” says Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s former envoy to NATO.

“Iran is our close neighbor, just south of the Caucasus. Should anything happen to Iran, should Iran get drawn into any political or military hardships, this will be a direct threat to our national security,” stressed Rogozin.

Dmitry Rogozin, who served as Russia’s special envoy to NATO in 2008-2011, was appointed deputy prime minister by Vladimir Putin in December. On Friday he was bidding farewell to his NATO colleagues in the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.

As for Syria, if NATO persists in interfering in its affairs, a catastrophe will be hard to avoid, said Rogozin, talking to journalists on the premises of the Russian mission to the alliance.

“The example of Libya should have cooled everybody down in matters dealing with foreign civil wars,” he said, stressing that this is his personal point of view.

“Syria must be left alone and the sides to the conflict must be assisted in breaking the stand-off and starting negotiations. No one must interfere with Syria. This is dangerous,” added Rogozin.

The West’s attempts to improve democracy in the Middle East and North Africa have resulted in Islamists coming to power. It is now up to the West to decide how comfortable they feel with neighbors who determine their politics with Sharia law, says Rogozin.

“If we add the escalating tensions around Iran to the situation in Syria and the consequences of the Libyan war, then the upcoming ‘scorching’ Arab Summer, which is following the Arab Spring, will hardly be to anyone’s taste.”

Russia’s response will make AMD ‘a waste of money’

Despite his recent promotion, Rogozin is still in charge of Russia-NATO discussions on anti-missile defense (AMD) issues.

A legal binding that the European and American missile defense systems will not target Russia has not been taken off the table, Rogozin pointed out.

“It seems strange that it is Russia who is required to show flexibility. This is not our project. If an architect is building a house, it is up to him to offer a design which would not violate property rights, area design and neighbors’ interests. So it is our US colleagues who should demonstrate miraculous flexibility to ensure that their AMD system does not violate the interests of other countries if it is to be located in Europe.”

Rogozin also called on European leaders to stop being “political puppets” in the AMD game, adding that everyone should stand for their own interests, not for some “Atlantic solidarity.”

If Moscow’s position is ignored and the range of the US anti-missile defense system covers the European part of Russia, this will be considered a situation requiring defensive action.

“I will certainly ensure Russia will give a corresponding technical response if the AMD system endangers our national interests. This will result in the American AMD being considered a waste of money,” said Rogozin.

Russia has everything needed to annihilate any attempt “to strip” its strategic potential, he added. This also means the era of imported weapons is coming to an end.

In a farewell gesture, Rogozin said he was considering planting a tree in the alliance’s headquarters. Symbolically enough, this would be a poplar, or “topol” in Russian, which brings up associations with Russia’s modern intercontinental ballistic missiles Topol-M.

But NATO replied that planting a tree within the headquarters perimeter “is not possible,” so the tree will have to be planted nearby.

War in the Middle East now appears imminent as the United States, Britain, the European Union, and Israel put the finishing touches on an embargo on Iran – a de facto declaration of war – and warships steam toward the Persian Gulf.

Consider the following recent developments:

U.S.-Israeli War Game in Persian Gulf

On Friday, the U.S. and Israel announced they plan a massive military exercise in the Persian Gulf in an attempt to confront Iran.

The exercise, dubbed “Austere Challenge 12,” will include the participation of thousands of U.S. and Israeli soldiers and will test multiple air defense systems against incoming missiles and rockets.

On January 2, during its last military exercise, Iran tested its Qader missile, a long-range sea-to-shore missile, and the surface-to-surface Nour missile. The Nour is an “advanced radar-evading, target-seeking, guided and controlled missile and can easily find its target and destroy it,” IRNA reported, quoting 2nd Adm. Seyed Mahmoud Musavi.

Iran Announces New War Game

Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, naval commander for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, said on Friday Iran will conduct a second military exercise in the Persian Gulf in February. He said the drill would be “different compared to previous exercises held by the IRGC” but provided no additional details.

Iran also launched a military maneuver near its border with Afghanistan on Saturday. Mohammad Pakpour, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ ground forces, said the “Martyrs of Unity” exercises are “aimed at boosting security along the Iranian borders,” Fars reported.

British Warships Sent

On Saturday, the British Royal Navy annoucned it is sending its most advanced warship to the Persian Gulf. The HMS Daring is a Type 45 destroyer that has the world’s most sophisticated naval radar.

Earlier in the week, British Defense Secretary Philip Hammond warned Iran against blocking the strait after Iran said it would take action if the United States sailed an aircraft carrier through the waterway following an Iranian 10-day military exercise designed to demonstrate its ability to close down the strategic oil passage.

French and Russian Warships Off Syria

The Israeli intelligence asset DEBKAfile reports today that the Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov anchored at Syria’s Tartus port on the Mediterranean on Sunday and arrived with the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry.

“To counter this movement, France consigned an air defense destroyer Forbin to the waters off Tartus,” DEBKAfile claims.

Reflecting Israel’s propaganda line on Iran and Syria, DEBKAfile claims that its “military sources report the constant escalation of military tension around Iran and Syria in recent days as not just stemming from the rapid advances Iran is making toward production of a nuclear weapon, but from fears in the West and Israel that Tehran and Damascus are in step over their military plans for the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean sectors.”

Ron Paul: Sanctions First Step Toward War

On Sunday, presidential candidate Ron Paul said the increasingly severe sanctions imposed on Iran in response to its unsubstantiated nuclear weapons program are steps that will eventually lead to war.

“Sanctions were the first step in our wars against Iraq and Libya, and now more sanctions planned against Syria and Iran are leading down the same destructive path,” he warned.

Iran is “planning to be bombed” and would understandably make the necessary arrangements to counter the threat, even though there is “no evidence whatsoever” that they have enriched weapons grade uranium, Paul noted.

He also pointed out that the United States government directly intervened in Iran’s internal affairs when the CIA overthrew the democratically elected leader Mohammad Mosaddeq and installed the Shah in 1953.

Oil Prices Rising Along with Tensions

Oil prices are beginning to climb as the United States and Iran prepare for war. Brent North Sea crude for delivery in February climbed 14 cents to $113.20 a barrel in London on Monday. Continued saber-rattling on both sides have forced oil prices to eight-month highs above the 100 dollars per barrel mark.

In addition to shocking world oil prices, the anticipated attack and Iran after a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz would dramatically impact the global trade in goods. “If for any reason the strait were closed it would have a huge impact on the economy in the Middle East and would cause a systematic restructuring of flows of goods around the world,” John Manners-Bell, who used to manage European marketing at United Parcel Service Inc., told Bloomberg.

Iranian Missile Base Propaganda

Now that Iran’s Ahmadinejad is visiting Latin America, the discredited rumor that Iran is building intermediate-range missile launch pads at a base on the Paraguaná Peninsula in Venezuela has resurfaced. It was initially floated by the German newspaper Die Welt and subsequently boosted by the Jerusalem Post, a documented neocon propaganda operation. The Post posted the story last May.

The story brings to mind the Cuban Missile Crisis in October of 1962.

According to the Die Welt story, the Iranians paid tens of millions in cash for the base that would be used to fire missiles into the United States after Iran is attacked. It was reported that the Revolutionary Guard-controlled engineering group Khatam al-Anbia is helping build the site.

“From Caracas to Miami is about 1,300 miles, maybe a couple hundred more than from the Peninsula – possibly within the range of Iran’s Ashoura medium-range ballistic missile that can cover a distance of over 1,200 miles,” Robert Johnson wrote for Business Insider last week as the story resurfaced on word of Ahmadinejad’s trip.

Business Insider also reported on a paper produced by latlongpacific that includes coordinates for a possible location and “details on the base and missiles that Iran would likely park there, including the Ghadr-100A with a  possible range of 3,000 km or about 1,800 miles,” Johnson writes.

“We have no evidence to support this claim and therefore no reason to believe the assertions made in the article are credible,” the State Department said in response to the story.

Kurt Nimmo
Infowars.com
January 9, 2012